…for Obama! Why? Because incumbent presidents don’t lose. “Hey!” you say, “tell that to Jimmy Carter. Tell it to George Bush.” Okay, so what are the circumstances that lead to an incumbent failing to secure his second term?
Over the past century only four incumbent presidents were defeated when they sought reelection. In addition to Carter and Bush, William Howard Taft and Herbert Hoover both failed in their attempt at reelection. Taft conducted a confrontational first term in which he alienated both his friends and his enemies. He lost the 1912 election to Woodrow Wilson. Hoover was unfortunate enough to be president when the Great Depression hit and lost in 1932 to Franklin Delano Roosevelt.
Jimmy Carter’s four years in office were catastrophic; his closest advisers admit as much. And he was defeated by an overwhelmingly strong candidate, one who has become the benchmark for Republican presidents ever since; Ronald Reagan.
George H.W. Bush never looked comfortable in the White House. Reagan’s vice president for eight years, a career Washington guy, and the presidential candidate who uttered those fateful words, “Read my lips, no new taxes,” before promptly inventing new taxes once in office. Then he came up against the force of nature that is Bill Clinton.
So it takes a Wilson, or a Roosevelt, or a Reagan, or a Clinton to unseat a sitting president. Is Mitt Romney made of such stuff? My verdict is no, he is not. And that is why Barrack Obama be president for another four years.